Learn how to estimate costs and apply Fermi approximations for designing space settlements in the Spanish Space Design Competition. Master the art of making educated guesses for complex problems.
Fermi approximations are a way to estimate values when you can't find them directly. Break down complex problems into smaller, more manageable pieces, and then multiply the estimates together to get a ballpark figure.
For example, to estimate the power consumption of a luxury space settlement, consider the average power usage of a luxury home on Earth and add an estimate for life support systems.
Consider resources from the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and comets. Use Earth-sourced materials only when necessary.
Expect shipping costs to be around 50% of the total. Consider weight and destination carefully.
Don't underestimate construction and manufacturing costs. Building in space is challenging and costly!
Include a buffer for unexpected costs. The more complex your design, the higher the contingency.
Imagine you need to calculate the cost of a solar module for a Martian colony. Here’s how you can break it down:
Compare your costs with alternative solutions and perform a sensitivity analysis to understand how different variables impact the final cost. Consider the entire lifecycle of your design.
Focus on design simplification, innovative materials, and new technologies to lower costs without compromising quality.
Estimating costs and applying Fermi approximations is about making educated guesses based on solid research. Focus on realistic estimates and be transparent about your assumptions.
With the right approach, you can create a cost estimate that is not only accurate but also helps bring your space settlement vision to life.